I created this online risk calculator taking into account age, sex and the presence of chronic diseases to demonstrate the additive risk of dying with a COVID-19 infection. This model is based on:
- recently updated (Lancet 3/30/20) Chinese epidemiological data
- estimates that only 6% of total COVID-19 cases are detected
- The assumption of this model, relies on the hypothesis that as you increase the number of diseases you have, you will increase your risk of dying from COVID-19 in a direct additive fashion (i.e. 1+1=2). However, adding more disease processes may not be directly additive. In fact, the risks of adding more than one disease could lead to an even higher risk (1+1=3). Alternatively, there may not be any additive risk (1+1=1).
- Importantly, these data are from a population of individuals with numerous confounding risk factors (i.e. tobacco use, air pollution, health, socioeconomic, lifestyle, limited access to care, etc.) that can only be accounted for in multivariate analysis.
- Additionally, individuals who are immunocompromised for reasons not accounted for in the conditions listed in the risk calculator also have a higher probability of infection-related complications and death (not able to estimate these risks in the model as they were not included in the published Chinese data).
- This model also can not account for the overwhelming of the healthcare system and inability to access intensive care services, which can lead to a higher mortality rate.
Case Mortality Rate:
- Use worldwide data from Hopkins to enter the numbers of confirmed cases and death.
Why Do The Calculated Risks Of Dying Look Lower Than What Is Reported On The News?
- The reason is that only 6% (estimated) of the total number of infections have been detected. This leads to a much larger number of undetected cases, which dilutes the case mortality rate.