Estimate Risk of Dying From COVID-19 Once Infected

Greater than 80% of infected individuals will not have serious symptoms or complications from COVID-19. However, the remaining infected population will require intensive treatment. Deaths are most common in patients who are older and have other chronic medical conditions.



I created this online risk calculator taking into account both age and other chronic diseases to demonstrate the additive risk of dying with a COVID-19 infection. This model is based on recently published Chinese epidemiological data.

Limitations: The assumption of this model, relies on the hypothesis that as you increase the number of diseases you have, you will increase your risk of dying from COVID-19 in a direct additive fashion (i.e. 1+1=2). However, adding more disease processes may not be directly additive. In fact, the risks of adding more than one disease could lead to an even higher risk (1+1=3). Alternatively, there may not be any additive risk (1+1=1). Importantly, these data are from a population of individuals with numerous confounding risk factors (i.e. tobacco use, air pollution, health, socioeconomic, lifestyle, limited access to care, etc.) that can only be accounted for in multivariate analysis. Additionally, individuals who are immunocompromised for reasons not accounted for in the conditions listed in the risk calculator also have a higher probability of infection-related complications and death (not able to estimate these risks in the model as they were not included in the published Chinese data).



Click Here to Estimate Your Risk of Dying From Influenza Once Infected




 


Medical Conditions Associated With Immunocompromised State:

As mentioned, above, individuals who are immunocompromised for reasons not accounted for in the conditions listed in the risk calculator also have a higher probability of infection-related complications and death (not able to estimate these risks in the model as they were not included in the published Chinese data).

Severely immunocompromised people include those who have active leukemia or lymphoma, generalized malignancy, aplastic anemia, graft-versus-host disease, or congenital immunodeficiency; others in this category include people who have received recent radiation therapy (typically only for those treated to large areas) or checkpoint inhibitor treatment (therapy of autoimmune complications of treatment is immunosuppressive), those who have had solid-organ transplants and who are on active immunosuppression, and both CAR-T cell and hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients (within 2 years of transplantation or still taking immunosuppressive drugs). See Table 5-02 for list of immunosuppressive drugs.



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