Will You Die From Being Infected With Coronavirus? (Version 4, April 6, 2020)

I created this online risk calculator taking into account age, sex and the presence of chronic diseases to demonstrate the additive risk of dying with a COVID-19 infection. This model is based on:

Limitations:

  • The assumption of this model, relies on the hypothesis that as you increase the number of diseases you have, you will increase your risk of dying from COVID-19 in a direct additive fashion (i.e. 1+1=2). However, adding more disease processes may not be directly additive. In fact, the risks of adding more than one disease could lead to an even higher risk (1+1=3). Alternatively, there may not be any additive risk (1+1=1).
  • Importantly, these data are from a population of individuals with numerous confounding risk factors (i.e. tobacco use, air pollution, health, socioeconomic, lifestyle, limited access to care, etc.) that can only be accounted for in multivariate analysis.
  • Additionally, individuals who are immunocompromised for reasons not accounted for in the conditions listed in the risk calculator also have a higher probability of infection-related complications and death (not able to estimate these risks in the model as they were not included in the published Chinese data).
  • This model also can not account for the overwhelming of the healthcare system and inability to access intensive care services, which can lead to a higher mortality rate.

Case Mortality Rate:

Why Do The Calculated Risks Of Dying Look Lower Than What Is Reported On The News?

  • The reason is that only 6% (estimated) of the total number of infections have been detected. This leads to a much larger number of undetected cases, which dilutes the case mortality rate.

 


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